MLB trade deadline watch: Jesús Luzardo, Josh Bell and an arm that could move next (2024)

Editor’s note: This is the first installment of MLB trade deadline watch, a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo may end up being the best player dealt at the trade deadline because he boasts ace stuff. He’s also a 26-year-old lefty under club control through the 2026 season. For all the things to love about him, though, evaluators have also raised some mild concerns that are at least worth exploring.

What’s up with his uneven season?

And after playing for only the Oakland Athletics and Miami, how would he fare in an environment where there’s a lot more attention?

The second of those two questions is harder to answer, but at least one National League evaluator isn’t concerned.

“Ninety-eight miles per hour with a real slider is good in any market,” the evaluator said. “The walks have gone away. He doesn’t have the control issues that he once had in Oakland. He’s more mature, he has work ethic, he’s prepared. There’s nothing there that’s a red flag.”

There’s no guarantee that Luzardo gets traded. In theory, the Marlins could hold onto him because of the club control attached to him. However, after trading Luis Arraez last month, they signaled that they’d be selling in a market devoid of many clear-cut sellers.

If Luzardo gets dealt, it would be for the third time in his young career. The last time, in 2021, Oakland flipped him for Starling Marte. Luzardo was 23. A few years later, he’s firmly back in trade rumors. The biggest difference between now and then? Luzardo said maturity. A few weeks ago, he said, he got rid of his social media accounts. He said he’s focused on the job, and understands that it’s just that, a business.

For Luzardo, all of that may be especially important to keep in mind. He’s a Miami guy. He’s from the city. He grew up loving the Marlins. He lives where he grew up, three minutes away from his parents.

“It’s obviously nice to be back home and play for the team I grew up rooting for, but at the same time, it’s never bad to be wanted by other organizations,” Luzardo said. “It is what it is. I am a firm believer that God has a plan for everything so however He wants it to shake out, it will shake out and it will be for the best.”

Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo says he had to grind a little bit through his start tonight against the Mets. #MarlinsBeisbol pic.twitter.com/KNP1MFSRGb

— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) June 12, 2024

In the meantime, rival evaluators want to see Luzardo get ahead in counts more often and display better fastball command. That’s no surprise to Luzardo.

“Those are the biggest key points for me,” Luzardo said.

Luzardo labeled 2024 as “an up-and-down season” so far that’s been “slightly frustrating at times.” In 11 starts and 61 2/3 innings, he has a 5.11 ERA/3.83 FIP with 56 strikeouts. Compared to last year when his fastball graded out on Baseball Savant as one of the league’s best, hitters are faring better against the pitch and striking out on it half as often. Luzardo’s velocity has dipped from 96.7 mph to 95.4 mph.

Luzardo said he is working on his mechanics in an effort to move down the mound similarly to how he felt last year, which he described as efficient and powerful. In his last start against the New York Mets Tuesday, things seemed to click. His velocity hit its highest average since mid-May, he recorded several called strikes with his fastball and threw first-pitch strikes to 17 of the 23 batters he faced.

“Being around the league a little bit more, teams are game-planning a little bit differently against me, but at the same time, the location of my fastball is very important to me,” Luzardo said. “And the velocity, I mean, it’s hit or miss. (Tuesday), the velocity was back up. Some days it goes down a little bit.

“It has nothing to do with health. It’s just more finding something within my routine to have it there consistently.”

Starting pitching is always the most desired trait at the deadline, and Luzardo is the early frontrunner for the starter most likely to be moved. He’ll come with a hefty price tag, given the scarcity of top rotation arms available.

“This is someone who has strikeout stuff. He had 200 strikeouts last year,” a National League source said. “(The return) has to be a top 100 prospect, at least.”

Josh Bell likely on the move — again

Marlins first baseman Josh Bell stands out as an obvious trade candidate given Miami’s struggles and his contract expiring at the end of the season. A couple of evaluators see Bell, a switch-hitting slugger, as someone who can help a quality team looking for platoon help with power. There may be more of those kinds of clubs than ones with huge holes in the middle of their batting orders on the hunt for someone like Mets star Pete Alonso (Bell is also making $16.5 million, which is less than Alonso, who is making $20.5 million).

But which Bell would a prospective team be landing? In consecutive years, he’s been part of two summer trades, leading to two wildly different levels of production.

After the San Diego Padres acquired him as part of the Juan Soto deal in 2022, Bell slashed just .192/.316/.271 with a 73 OPS+.

After the Marlins acquired him in 2023, Bell slashed .270/.338/.480 with a 116 OPS+.

What gives? Bell said there were a number of factors that contributed to his numbers being down with the Padres, including a hard time adjusting to new pitchers in a new division. But what it simply boils down to, he said, is he just didn’t play well.

“I just put too much pressure on myself to slug, and I shouldn’t have,” Bell said. “It was just that point of the year where I only had like 14 homers or whatever it was and I wanted to finish with 25. And the West did not want me to slug. So they did whatever they could to keep me from putting the ball in the air.”

For Bell — who most likely will make it a hat trick with three straight seasons of getting traded — it was a lesson learned that he may soon be able to reapply.

Said Bell: “Going through that helped me after the trade in understanding, ‘Don’t put too much pressure on yourself. The team is already good. Don’t try to do anything more.’”

The next arm to go?

Virtually everyone is on the table for the Marlins, baseball’s least surprising sellers. Tanner Scott could be next. Despite surrendering a walk-off homer to the Mets’ J.D. Martinez on Thursday night, Scott has quietly been one of the National League’s best relievers, and quality bullpen help is always coveted by contenders come July. But he comes with only a half-season of control, as he’s a pending free agent. Realistically, what could his return be?

“I don’t think Tanner Scott alone will get you a blue-chip prospect as a rental reliever,” one National League evaluator said.

But for teams looking for bullpen help — and contending teams are always looking for bullpen help — Scott looks to be the most obvious early name. His late-inning usage is based more so on leverage than save situations, but his 27 appearances already this year show both his ability and willingness to take the ball.

“What wins in the playoffs? Bullpens, right?” the evaluator said. “Scott throws every day. He’s never down.”

Scott isn’t the talent teams will overpay for, especially given the lack of team control, but in an era where pitching is everything come playoffs, Miami will be inclined to move him quickly while his value is at its peak.

(Photo of Luzardo: Brad Penner / USA Today)